Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E7 0xe714…0b4a crypto 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,116 (-20%) realized −$4,101 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate60%89W / 59L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$4,027
14 days−$3,995
30 days−$3,987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$3,328
world 23% +$257
sports 17% −$969
crypto 7% −$169
politics 3% +$40
economics 2% +$6
finance 1% +$8
tech 0% +$12
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -20.9% -28.5% 60% 33% -44.0%
≤30d 124 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 31% -32.5%
≤90d 139 -8.6% -17.3% 60% 32% -29.9%
all 148 -9.3% -17.9% 60% 32% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 32% -29.9%
10% -25.8% 24% -36.6%
15% -32.9% 11% -42.7%
20% -39.5% 7% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$96 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$1,797
Realized−$4,101
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses89 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions16
Markets (closed)148 / 164
History coverage110d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $300 $340 +$40 (+13%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 90¢ $200 $259 +$59 (+29%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $252 $258 +$6 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 100¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 72¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-3%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 44¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 68¢ $77 $67 −$9 (-12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 17¢ $100 $32 −$68 (-68%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 58¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $201 +$10 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$28 +27%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $307 −$305 -99%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 −$5 -22%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 −$67 -66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$128 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $401 +$25 +6%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,115 +$35 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $402 +$91 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$12 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $200 −$5 -3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $301 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $708 −$573 -81%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$45 -88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,518 −$2,512 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $405 −$400 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$28 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $531 +$32 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $95 +$4 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $300 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 12h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 12h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $201 12h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 12h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $101 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 14h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $16 21h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $615 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $493 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $34 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $244 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $213 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 26h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $500 36h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $195 36h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $200 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 36h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $401 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 36h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $201 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $202 36h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $201 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 38h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $201 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $41 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,797.34 · official $1,797.25 (match) · 396 history records