Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe719…b74d crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,126 (+16%) realized +$2,126 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$720per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,111
7 days+$1,288
14 days+$1,466
30 days+$1,466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$1,585
crypto 5% −$225
sports 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 43% +0.3%
≤30d 8 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 50% +1.4%
≤90d 8 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 50% +1.4%
all 18 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 39% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 39% -0.2%
10% -25.3% 28% -9.8%
15% -32.5% 22% -18.5%
20% -39.1% 17% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$986) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$483 vs −$186 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage108d
Avg bet$720
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $103 −$29 -28%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $2,016 −$1,334 -66%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $3,992 +$1,475 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,994 +$998 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,695 −$439 -26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $986 +$629 +64%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $82 −$12 -15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $307 +$177 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 06 $72 −$46 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 06 $52 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 06 $74 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 06 $40 −$31 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 06 $179 −$76 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 06 $100 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 06 $80 −$68 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 06 $30 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $140 +$91 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes $74 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $103 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $683 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 73¢ $2,016 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $5,467 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 72¢ $3,992 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,992 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,498 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,496 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 36¢ $79 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $476 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $700 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $700 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $995 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,615 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $76 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $70 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $82 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $911 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $77 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $44 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 42¢ $364 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $26 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $46 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $47 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records