Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe71a…cdc1 other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$112 (+2%) realized +$149 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%24W / 94L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$184
14 days+$167
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$644
other 33% −$403
world 2% −$105
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -36.7% -42.7% 21% 21% -15.0%
≤30d 118 -15.0% -23.1% 20% 20% -6.3%
≤90d 118 -15.0% -23.1% 20% 20% -6.3%
all 118 -15.0% -23.1% 20% 20% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 20% -6.3%
10% -30.4% 20% -15.3%
15% -37.1% 20% -23.5%
20% -43.3% 20% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$29 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized+$149
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses24 / 94
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions3
Markets (closed)118 / 122
History coverage14d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 68¢ 65¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Over 55¢ 43¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $56 −$55 -99%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $112 +$89 +79%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $406 −$400 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $127 +$128 +101%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $34 +$69 +206%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $334 +$276 +83%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $117 −$115 -98%
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-3.5) Jun 24 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $24 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $13 +$87 +650%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $26 +$131 +510%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $304 +$205 +67%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 22 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $253 −$249 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$23 +134%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $203 +$168 +83%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $34 −$33 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $24 −$23 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $308 +$199 +65%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $202 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $56 21h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 28h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY 55¢ $112 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 45h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 55¢ $252 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $406 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $127 3d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 37¢ $117 3d
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-3.5) BUY Bosnia-Herzegovina 27¢ $30 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 32¢ $34 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $334 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $33 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 4d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $20 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 9¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.99 · official $362.99 (match) · 148 history records