Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe71c…4987 sports 214 markets active 1d ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$172 (+12%) realized +$199 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%54W / 155L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$44
14 days+$186
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$108
other 39% +$54
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +39.0% +25.7% 26% 24% -12.4%
≤30d 209 +31.6% +19.0% 26% 25% -7.6%
≤90d 209 +31.6% +19.0% 26% 25% -7.6%
all 209 +31.6% +19.0% 26% 25% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.0% 25% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here +7.6% 24% -16.5%
15% -2.8% 23% -24.5%
20% -12.3% 21% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$5 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses54 / 155
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)209 / 214
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 100¢ $30 $51 +$21 (+70%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 19¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 +$38 +1845%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 +$28 +276%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$8 +83%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$59 +117%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$21 +206%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $9 −$8 -90%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $21 +$84 +406%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $15 −$9 -58%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $15 −$11 -70%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $10 +$25 +250%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $6 −$3 -51%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 +$33 +109%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$32 +158%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 25h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Under $3 25h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $3 25h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 25h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 25h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 25h
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $10 25h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes $10 26h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $30 26h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes $2 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $1 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes $5 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $3 3d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Ghana to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $3 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $2 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 26¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 27¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.97 · official $62.97 (match) · 379 history records