Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe721…0020 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$13 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$116
other 48% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +35.7% +22.8% 50% 50% +32.4%
≤30d 2 +35.7% +22.8% 50% 50% +32.4%
≤90d 2 +35.7% +22.8% 50% 50% +32.4%
all 2 +35.7% +22.8% 50% 50% +32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.8% 50% +32.4%
10% +11.0% 50% +19.7%
15% +0.3% 50% +8.1%
20% -9.5% 50% -2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$44 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 46¢ 72¢ $50 $79 +$29 (+58%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$88 +171%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $45 −$44 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $139 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $45 14h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.66 · official $105.66 (match) · 5 history records