Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E7 0xe721…fad1 weather 67 markets active 5d ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate83%55W / 11L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% +$5
sports 19% +$26
crypto 1% $0
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.9% -57.4% 0% 0% -57.4%
≤30d 3 -35.2% -41.4% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 29 -3.5% -12.7% 93% 0% -9.5%
all 66 +14.4% +3.5% 83% 21% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 21% -9.0%
10% -6.4% 21% -17.7%
15% -15.4% 20% -25.7%
20% -23.7% 15% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses55 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage458d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 21 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 15? May 15 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 12°C or below on May 13 May 13 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on May 9? May 09 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on May 8? May 08 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 64-65°F on May 7? May 07 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on May 5? May 06 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on May 5? May 05 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ma May 04 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 25? Apr 26 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 22? Apr 23 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on April 22? Apr 22 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on April 16? Apr 17 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 14? Apr 14 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 14? Apr 13 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on April 11? Apr 11 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 8? Apr 08 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 8? Apr 07 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 7? Apr 06 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on April 3? Apr 03 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on April 2? Apr 02 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 39°F or below on March 25? Mar 25 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on March 24? Mar 24 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C or below on March 23? Mar 23 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 11°C on March 23? Mar 22 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 4°C or below on March 20? Mar 21 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on March 19? Mar 19 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on March 14? Mar 13 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 33°F or below on March 10? Mar 10 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 6? Mar 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 4? Mar 05 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on March 3? Mar 04 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or below on Nove Dec 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or higher on Oct Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or below on Octo Oct 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Se Sep 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on Aug Sep 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on Aug Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 89°F or higher on August 11? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 11 $6 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 30 $6 +$11 +186%
Mets vs. Red Sox Jun 05 $2 +$2 +117%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $905 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Raptors Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Kraken vs. Oilers Mar 23 $2 +$1 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Kings Mar 23 $2 +$2 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $144 29d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $144 33d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 12°C or below on May 13 BUY No 100¢ $144 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $145 38d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $144 39d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 64-65°F on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $142 40d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $142 41d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $145 42d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $143 43d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $142 51d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $143 54d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $143 55d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $141 61d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $141 63d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $140 64d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $141 67d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $141 69d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $141 70d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $142 71d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $142 74d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $142 75d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 39°F or below on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $141 83d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $140 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.51 (match) · 136 history records