Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E7 0xe722…57c5 sports 1528 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,945 (-8%) realized −$9,230 · open +$285
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%832W / 693L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$826est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$765now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,442
7 days−$1,260
14 days−$2,606
30 days−$3,923
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,698
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤30d 299 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 50% -18.4%
≤90d 1247 -22.9% -30.3% 44% 42% -28.1%
all 1525 -4.7% -13.8% 55% 52% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 52% -13.6%
10% -22.0% 48% -21.9%
15% -29.6% 44% -29.4%
20% -36.5% 40% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$72 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$765
Realized−$9,230
Unrealized+$285
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses832 / 693
Est. fees paid−$826
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1525 / 1528
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1525 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Over 45¢ 92¢ $160 $329 +$169 (+106%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 58¢ 93¢ $160 $256 +$96 (+60%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 44¢ 50¢ $160 $180 +$20 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $162 +$105 +65%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $162 +$114 +70%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 17 $162 −$160 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $489 −$480 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $162 −$160 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $162 −$160 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $163 −$160 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $487 +$473 +97%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $487 +$419 +86%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $162 +$114 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $162 +$158 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $162 +$119 +73%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $162 +$105 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $163 −$160 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $162 −$160 -99%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 16 $163 −$160 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $486 −$480 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $162 −$160 -99%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 16 $163 −$160 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $162 −$160 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $162 −$160 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $162 −$160 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $488 −$480 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $162 +$164 +101%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $162 +$129 +79%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $162 −$160 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $162 −$160 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $163 −$160 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $162 +$171 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $162 −$160 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $365 +$314 +86%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 14 $122 +$178 +146%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $365 −$360 -99%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $122 −$120 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $122 +$114 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $365 +$314 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $366 +$384 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $366 +$369 +101%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $120 +$204 +170%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $122 +$93 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $122 +$93 +76%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $365 −$360 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $365 +$327 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $365 +$327 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $122 +$133 +109%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $122 +$89 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 45¢ $163 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $162 2h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $163 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $162 5h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 56¢ $162 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $489 5h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $162 6h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 58¢ $162 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 50¢ $162 8h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 40¢ $163 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $487 23h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $163 23h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $162 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $162 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $162 25h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 37¢ $163 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $486 25h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $162 25h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 35¢ $163 25h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $487 25h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $162 26h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 63¢ $162 26h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $162 26h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 58¢ $162 26h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $488 26h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 60¢ $162 26h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $508 47h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $162 47h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $162 47h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $162 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $765.29 · official $765.29 (match) · 3500 history records