Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E7 0xe724…7b22 weather 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$18 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$5
weather 6% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -53.4% -57.8% 0% 0% -56.5%
≤30d 3 -53.4% -57.8% 0% 0% -56.5%
≤90d 3 -53.4% -57.8% 0% 0% -56.5%
all 3 -53.4% -57.8% 0% 0% -56.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.8% 0% -56.5%
10% -61.8% 0% -60.6%
15% -65.5% 0% -64.4%
20% -68.9% 0% -67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$7 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$642
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $465 $460 −$4 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $183 $182 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 −$6 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 −$13 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $183 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $471 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $642.04 · official $642.04 (match) · 8 history records