Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe727…4516 other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$16
politics 35% −$13
sports 11% +$71
tech 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 136 +0.8% -8.8% 8% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$0 · ×18.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage132d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $245 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $400 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $196 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $206 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $239 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $236 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $241 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $230 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $194 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 06 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $194 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $255 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $229 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $189 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $197 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $239 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $243 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $183 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $226 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $240 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $459 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $356 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $239 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $255 $0 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $201 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $246 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $226 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $377 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $362 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 18d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $214 23d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $214 23d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 24d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 24d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $196 24d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $196 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $206 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $206 26d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $239 26d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $239 26d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $236 26d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $236 28d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $216 28d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $216 28d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $241 28d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $241 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $193 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $193 30d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $218 30d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $218 30d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $230 30d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $230 31d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $241 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 389 history records