Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe727…fabc crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$587 (-32%) realized −$584 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$47
14 days−$651
30 days−$651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$582
crypto 34% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -43.5% -48.9% 33% 17% -45.3%
≤30d 21 -18.4% -26.1% 48% 24% -41.9%
≤90d 21 -18.4% -26.1% 48% 24% -41.9%
all 21 -18.4% -26.1% 48% 24% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 24% -41.9%
10% -33.2% 19% -47.4%
15% -39.7% 10% -52.5%
20% -45.6% 5% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$67 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$584
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage9d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET Down 54¢ 48¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$20 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$21 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 18 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $630 +$18 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$26 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$27 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$4 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $29 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $29 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $43 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $41 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $40 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $40 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $40 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $600 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 78¢ $648 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $630 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $26.53 (match) · 46 history records