Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E7 0xe72b…3c9c sports 756 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,298 (+1%) realized +$8,307 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%150W / 532L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$908per market
Trades / day52.9pace
Fees−$2,884est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$132,390
sports 37% −$206,001
other 7% −$39,315
crypto 5% −$220
politics 2% −$160
weather 1% −$2,275
culture 1% −$4,892
finance 0% −$93
economics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +384.9% +338.7% 75% 25% -7.4%
≤30d 400 -6.9% -15.8% 31% 20% -91.0%
≤90d 682 -36.3% -42.4% 22% 15% -91.3%
all 682 -36.3% -42.4% 22% 15% -91.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.4% 15% -91.3%
10% -47.9% 14% -92.1%
15% ← realistic here -52.9% 12% -92.9%
20% -57.5% 10% -93.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -75% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$744 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$8,307
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses150 / 532
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$2,884
Open positions19
Markets (closed)682 / 756
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$908
Trades / day52.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 60¢ 98¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+64%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $21 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 27¢ 25¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 56¢ 70¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 57¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 12¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? No 91¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 85¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? No 64¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+56%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$15 -67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $111 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $87 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $73 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $18 $0 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $76 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $81 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $124 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $157 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $125 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $464 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $125 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $190 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 10 $91 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $86 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $97 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $48 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $142 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 09 $154 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $115 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 9? Jun 09 $90 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $76 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 9? Jun 09 $56 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $55 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Krueger Jun 06 $4 $0 +2%
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 06 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 56¢ $199 20m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 4¢ $7 22m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 4¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 91¢ $7 45m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 9¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $157 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 57¢ $115 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 88¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $86 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4,128 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.38 · official $50.84 · 3500 history records