Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E7 0xe72d…a77d other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+0%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$17
politics 39% −$15
sports 9% +$112
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 132 +1.8% -7.9% 14% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 8% -9.3%
10% -16.7% 8% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 5% -25.9%
20% -32.2% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×12.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage131d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $262 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $257 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $275 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $242 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $231 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $290 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $291 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $661 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $308 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $516 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $314 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 09 $230 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $462 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $271 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $247 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 6h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 17h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 19h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 26h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 33h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 10d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $52 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 21d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 22d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $257 22d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $257 23d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 24d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $212 24d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $212 26d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $242 26d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $215 27d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 27d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $231 27d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $231 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 380 history records