Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe72e…b33d other 690 markets active 1h ago coverage 645d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 644d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$369 (-2%) realized −$259 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%318W / 358L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$32
14 days−$226
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$90
finance 19% +$133
world 18% −$180
sports 12% −$28
politics 4% −$105
crypto 3% −$56
culture 1% −$62
tech 0% −$19
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -12.5% -20.9% 45% 39% -13.5%
≤30d 51 -32.4% -38.8% 35% 27% -29.7%
≤90d 151 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 38% -11.0%
all 676 -2.5% -11.8% 47% 40% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 40% -11.4%
10% -20.2% 34% -19.9%
15% -28.0% 29% -27.6%
20% -35.0% 26% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

645d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized−$259
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses318 / 358
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)676 / 690
History coverage645d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 676 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 66¢ 42¢ $172 $109 −$62 (-36%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $63 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 78¢ 96¢ $79 $97 +$18 (+23%)
Will Viking win Norway Eliteserien? Yes 22¢ 33¢ $27 $40 +$13 (+50%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 87¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 51¢ 15¢ $77 $23 −$54 (-71%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $32 $21 −$11 (-34%)
Will Bodø/Glimt win Norway Eliteserien? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 22¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 63¢ 18¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 -22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 16 $155 −$10 -7%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $39 −$17 -44%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +197%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $19 +$5 +25%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$15 +58%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 13 $29 +$6 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $33 +$37 +110%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 +$18 +84%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $84 −$56 -66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$12 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $55 +$51 +92%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 11 $43 +$9 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 11 $51 +$8 +15%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in April? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -84%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in April? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-05-16? Jun 10 $57 −$57 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% in April? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 10 $43 −$43 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by ≥1.1% in April? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 1.0% in April? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +9%
Epstein client list released by June 30? May 26 $6 −$4 -60%
Will Lillestrøm SK vs. Kristiansund BK end in a draw? May 20 $9 $0 +2%
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-03-22? May 20 $2 −$1 -71%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) May 20 $7 +$3 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Will Bodø/Glimt win Norway Eliteserien? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 20h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $0 21h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 31¢ $1 21h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $1 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 58¢ $61 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $4 26h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 28h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 28h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 15¢ $22 28h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 57¢ $11 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 69¢ $7 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 70¢ $15 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 70¢ $4 31h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 92¢ $18 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 78¢ $16 36h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 78¢ $4 37h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 78¢ $4 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 52¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $6 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $18 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $4 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 63¢ $13 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 46¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.95 · official $338.95 (match) · 3402 history records