Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe72f…58cf sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$851 (-84%) realized −$851 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$234
world 39% −$388
sports 21% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -34.7% -40.9% 20% 20% -83.8%
≤30d 5 -34.7% -40.9% 20% 20% -83.8%
≤90d 5 -34.7% -40.9% 20% 20% -83.8%
all 5 -34.7% -40.9% 20% 20% -83.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 20% -83.8%
10% -46.6% 20% -85.3%
15% -51.7% 20% -86.7%
20% -56.5% 20% -88.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$212 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$851
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$112 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $352 −$346 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $394 −$388 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $49 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 34¢ $97 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $79 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $352 19h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $394 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $95.55 · 7 history records