Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E7
0xe738…df65
world · 167 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$102,568 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$104,523 · open +$4,957
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$273,356
Realized+$104,523
Unrealized+$4,957
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses40 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$579
Open positions112
Markets (closed)67 / 167
Avg bet$3,025
Trades / day243.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 112 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28,125
7 days+$61,100
14 days+$104,523
30 days+$104,523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $21,031 $21,956 +$925 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 89¢ 86¢ $17,634 $16,994 −$640 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $13,073 $16,684 +$3,611 (+28%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 60¢ 82¢ $11,866 $16,238 +$4,371 (+37%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 69¢ $8,850 $10,424 +$1,574 (+18%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 87¢ 95¢ $8,760 $9,553 +$792 (+9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 80¢ $5,088 $8,072 +$2,984 (+59%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 80¢ 79¢ $8,065 $7,914 −$151 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $6,700 $7,550 +$850 (+13%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 89¢ 92¢ $6,827 $7,078 +$250 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 92¢ 96¢ $6,470 $6,688 +$219 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 76¢ $7,244 $6,198 −$1,046 (-14%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 60¢ $5,289 $6,042 +$753 (+14%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $5,513 $5,733 +$220 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 58¢ $4,656 $5,616 +$960 (+21%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 83¢ $3,517 $5,124 +$1,607 (+46%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 61¢ $3,867 $4,462 +$595 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $3,710 $4,417 +$708 (+19%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 66¢ $2,015 $4,322 +$2,308 (+115%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 47¢ 46¢ $4,200 $4,185 −$15 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 68¢ 69¢ $4,080 $4,169 +$89 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 84¢ 91¢ $3,798 $4,125 +$327 (+9%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $3,869 $3,976 +$107 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 94¢ 99¢ $3,468 $3,649 +$181 (+5%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 82¢ $3,625 $3,501 −$123 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6,840 +$10,609 +155%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $2,886 +$714 +25%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1,032 +$183 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $4,607 +$24,583 +534%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,806 +$305 +17%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,020 +$480 +47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $96 −$78 -81%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $3,568 +$2,198 +62%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $683 −$683 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $430 −$430 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $870 −$870 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $310 −$310 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $273 −$273 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $657 −$657 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $438 −$438 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $438 −$438 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 12 $525 −$525 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $460 −$460 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $2,405 −$1,676 -70%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $4,596 −$4,300 -94%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $930 +$570 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,100 +$900 +82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7,380 +$1,620 +22%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $7,673 −$1,289 -17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $330 −$330 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1,125 +$13 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,611 +$166 +6%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 10 $0 +$1 +212%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 10 $51 +$13 +25%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 10 $40 +$47 +117%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $11,977 +$523 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,100 +$900 +82%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $975 +$1,525 +156%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1,700 +$800 +47%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,800 +$2,200 +79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5,389 +$286 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,800 +$5,200 +108%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $8,393 +$1,698 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 08 $1,035 +$1,025 +99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 08 $412 −$412 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $880 −$880 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 08 $920 −$920 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 08 $876 −$876 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 08 $423 −$423 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,525 −$1,525 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 08 $1,569 −$1,569 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 74% +$91,687
sports 10% +$7,685
other 6% +$2,035
finance 4% +$11,905
crypto 4% −$5,167
politics 2% +$1,333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 0m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 0m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 2m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 3m
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 73¢ $653 6m
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $2 6m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $265 7m
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $8 7m
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 68¢ $658 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 30¢ $600 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $410 10m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 68¢ $568 10m
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 68¢ $22 12m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 68¢ $5 12m
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 73¢ $0 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 68¢ $272 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $438 18m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $66 20m
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $2 21m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 42¢ $774 21m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 42¢ $2 21m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 42¢ $20 21m
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $10 22m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 68¢ $20 22m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 42¢ $16 22m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 42¢ $24 22m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 42¢ $4 22m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $13 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 46% +34.1%
≤30d 67 +21.7% +10.1% 60% 49% +42.9%
≤90d 67 +21.7% +10.1% 60% 49% +42.9%
all 67 +21.7% +10.1% 60% 49% +42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover243.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.1% 49% +42.9%
10% -0.4% 42% +29.2%
15% ← realistic here -10.0% 37% +16.7%
20% -18.8% 33% +5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273,356.26 · official $273,275.25 (match) · 3500 history records