trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 17¢ | 17¢ | $11 | $11 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $23 | $0 | -2% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? | Jun 28 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 25 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 25 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | Apr 25 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? | Apr 25 | $79 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election? | Apr 24 | $86 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the AFD be part of the next German government? | Apr 24 | $93 | $0 | -0% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Apr 24 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? | Apr 24 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E | Apr 23 | $102 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 67% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 67% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 67% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 17 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 53% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -33.3% |