Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe73b…36bb crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,879 (-15%) realized −$1,879 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate87%122W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$337
14 days+$337
30 days+$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$100
other 26% −$1,979
politics 7% +$22
sports 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +4.9% -5.1% 88% 38% -5.7%
≤30d 128 +4.9% -5.1% 88% 38% -5.6%
≤90d 141 +2.8% -7.0% 87% 36% -22.3%
all 141 +2.8% -7.0% 87% 36% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 36% -22.3%
10% -15.9% 21% -29.8%
15% -24.0% 13% -36.5%
20% -31.4% 9% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$152 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,879
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses122 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage49d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $150 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $269 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $267 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 392 history records