Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe741…a9d1 sports 241 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,535 (+17%) realized +$4,539 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%108W / 127L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$373est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$689
7 days+$460
14 days+$704
30 days+$2,811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$2,120
other 11% +$2,010
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -6.8% -15.7% 43% 43% +1.5%
≤30d 122 -5.1% -14.1% 46% 45% +9.6%
≤90d 233 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 45% +4.8%
all 235 -5.4% -14.4% 46% 46% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 46% +4.8%
10% -22.6% 42% -5.2%
15% -30.0% 40% -14.4%
20% -36.9% 38% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$69 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized+$4,539
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses108 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$373
Open positions6
Markets (closed)235 / 241
History coverage106d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $298 $300 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $46 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 51¢ 48¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva Jun 24 $114 +$35 +31%
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Ribera (+1.5) Jun 24 $101 −$1 -1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 24 $57 +$57 +101%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens Jun 24 $49 +$7 +15%
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Guo (+1.5) Jun 23 $48 +$57 +117%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 22 $574 +$624 +109%
Spread: Valencia (-0.5) Jun 22 $33 +$37 +110%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $544 −$250 -46%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniil Glinka vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 22 $184 −$184 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 22 $101 +$21 +21%
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jun 22 $200 −$15 -8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus Jun 21 $41 +$31 +76%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 20 $54 +$11 +21%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $30 +$50 +170%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Harrison/Skupski Jun 20 $21 +$19 +89%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $110 −$110 -100%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 20 $127 +$211 +167%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $147 +$243 +165%
Asuncion 2 (Doubles): Ribeiro/Zeballos vs Casanova/Taverna Jun 18 $8 +$12 +156%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $287 +$258 +90%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Jun 18 $121 −$121 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $289 −$2 -1%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $101 +$48 +48%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $100 +$73 +73%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $20 −$19 -95%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$1 -3%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $30 +$37 +124%
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $295 +$244 +83%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $102 −$97 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $4 6m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $36 33m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 76¢ $114 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jeline Vandromme SELL Jeline Vandromme 100¢ $114 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jeline Vandromme BUY Jeline Vandromme 49¢ $57 2h
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Ribera (+1.5) BUY Wang 50¢ $98 6h
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Ribera (+1.5) BUY Wang 49¢ $2 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens BUY Elena Pridankina 50¢ $29 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 36¢ $20 6h
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Swiatek 52¢ $64 23h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Sabine Rutlauka BUY Sabine Rutlauka 45¢ $20 25h
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Guo (+1.5) SELL Wang 100¢ $20 25h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee BUY Carol Young Suh Lee 50¢ $21 26h
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Guo (+1.5) SELL Wang 100¢ $20 26h
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Guo (+1.5) BUY Wang 46¢ $46 31h
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Guo (+1.5) BUY Wang 46¢ $2 31h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Maddison Inglis 49¢ $21 32h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 46¢ $121 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt SELL Oliver Tarvet 100¢ $122 2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 47¢ $1 2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 48¢ $331 2d
Spread: Valencia (-0.5) BUY Valencia 47¢ $14 2d
Spread: Valencia (-0.5) BUY Valencia 47¢ $5 2d
Spread: Valencia (-0.5) BUY Valencia 47¢ $14 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt BUY Oliver Tarvet 82¢ $101 2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 47¢ $14 2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 46¢ $107 2d
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 57¢ $294 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane SELL Gabriel Diallo 53¢ $294 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.12 · official $407.29 (match) · 646 history records