Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E7 0xe744…f96e crypto 355 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,146 (+1%) realized +$13,902 · open −$2,756
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%319W / 20L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$3,601per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38,734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$704
7 days+$3,055
14 days+$4,223
30 days−$10,417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15,118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.2% -6.6% 86% 3% -6.5%
≤30d 140 -1.5% -10.9% 89% 1% -11.7%
≤90d 339 +1.7% -8.0% 94% 3% -8.2%
all 339 +1.7% -8.0% 94% 3% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 3% -8.2%
10% -16.8% 1% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.8% 1% -25.0%
20% -32.2% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$5,304) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$1,564 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$38,734
Realized+$13,902
Unrealized−$2,756
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses319 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)339 / 355
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$3,601
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $6,783 $7,028 +$245 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $5,764 $5,895 +$130 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 96¢ 81¢ $5,970 $5,080 −$891 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $4,973 $4,961 −$12 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 96¢ 94¢ $2,744 $2,696 −$48 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $2,609 $2,646 +$37 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Yes 96¢ 75¢ $3,256 $2,550 −$707 (-22%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Yes 95¢ 73¢ $2,096 $1,623 −$473 (-23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? No 95¢ 94¢ $1,615 $1,595 −$20 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Yes 93¢ 68¢ $2,176 $1,579 −$597 (-27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,442 $1,417 −$26 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 93¢ 69¢ $1,603 $1,201 −$402 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? No 97¢ 100¢ $270 $277 +$7 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 96¢ 90¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Yes 97¢ 93¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $6,635 +$292 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $6,867 +$184 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,529 +$52 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $976 +$20 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4,928 +$155 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $935 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $3,138 −$5 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,137 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,572 +$30 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $6,012 +$80 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,236 −$9 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $43 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $2,573 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $3,278 +$754 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2,323 +$84 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $2,215 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,643 +$169 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,585 +$43 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3,118 +$234 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,869 +$38 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,493 +$89 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3,368 +$112 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $1,875 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,586 +$132 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3,865 +$109 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $974 +$25 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,113 +$51 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5,444 +$134 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $230 +$10 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,545 +$60 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $2,047 +$21 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $3,693 +$87 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $4,766 +$88 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,338 +$82 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3,759 +$192 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,927 +$273 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $299 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $3,395 +$157 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $3,644 +$90 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $7,113 +$239 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $142 +$8 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $233 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $980 +$46 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,405 +$30 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3,037 +$29 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $6,892 +$132 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $167 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,661 +$37 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 91¢ $64 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 91¢ $1,007 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $82 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $80 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $34 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $80 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $124 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 91¢ $92 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $50 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1,860 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $16 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1,504 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $156 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $296 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $115 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $20 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $394 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $294 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $68 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $24 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $69 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $125 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $142 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $1,049 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $82 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,733.76 · official $38,710.26 (match) · 3500 history records