Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:24:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe745…9c41 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$7
other 30% +$1
politics 22% $0
sports 7% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.1% -12.3% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 18 -2.5% -11.8% 28% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 18 -2.5% -11.8% 28% 0% -10.5%
all 48 -0.9% -10.3% 21% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage279d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $40 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $22 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 19 $9 $0 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $34 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $38 −$6 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $37 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $20 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $22 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $7 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $34 38h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $17 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $17 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $34 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $18 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $17 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $5 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $30 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $34 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records