Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe748…bc49 sports 1718 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$678 (-8%) realized +$789 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%737W / 813L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day82.6pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$343
7 days−$96
14 days+$229
30 days+$794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$1,261
other 10% −$58
crypto 0% +$11
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 311 -26.6% -33.6% 33% 32% -15.8%
≤30d 975 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 48% +4.8%
≤90d 1550 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 46% -0.8%
all 1550 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 46% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 46% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 44% -10.3%
15% -21.7% 42% -18.9%
20% -29.4% 37% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$789
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses737 / 813
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions71
Markets (closed)1550 / 1718
History coverage41d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day82.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 1550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 81¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 77¢ 68¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 55¢ 100¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+82%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 89¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 33¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 28¢ $9 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 38¢ 88¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+130%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Yes 55¢ 87¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 429 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ENCE Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 G Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Gro Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-03-21? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Acend (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-03-21? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-04-10? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 232.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Zena Esports vs Aeterna Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ben Sheppard: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Verdant vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Islanders vs. Canadiens Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Katie Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a player finish a BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 play-offs map with Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Lilmix (BO3) - ESL Challenger League E Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. P Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Bruins Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 216.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dundee United FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 51¢ $3 5m
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 14m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $5 18m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 29m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 33m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $2 37m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $2 43m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $2 58m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 83¢ $4 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $2 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 100¢ $6 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $2 3h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $3 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $0 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 5h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $1 5h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $1 5h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $0 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 44¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $20 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.39 · official $265.39 (match) · 3500 history records