Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:54:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E7
0xe748…2b23
other · 858 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$560 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$554 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized−$554
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses142 / 667
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions49
Markets (closed)809 / 858
History coverage78d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 49 History 809 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$81
14 days−$95
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 24¢ 94¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+291%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 13¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-62%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+70%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 21¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 12¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 13? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 10¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -71%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +233%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -44%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +454%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $13 −$5 -38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 11 $6 −$2 -38%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -39%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 11 $6 −$1 -22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 22% −$37
other 19% −$158
weather 15% −$80
sports 13% −$27
politics 10% −$75
tech 8% −$64
crypto 6% −$60
finance 3% −$27
culture 3% −$29
economics 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 15¢ $0 0m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2m
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 1¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 21¢ $1 15m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 24m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 27m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 30m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL No 18¢ $1 31m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY No 16¢ $1 31m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 35m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 38m
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 41m
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 10¢ $1 55m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 58m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $1 1h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 3¢ $1 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -36.3% -42.3% 23% 15% -47.3%
≤30d 317 -45.6% -50.8% 16% 13% -47.7%
≤90d 809 -36.7% -42.7% 18% 14% -35.6%
all 809 -36.7% -42.7% 18% 14% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.7% 14% -35.6%
10% ← realistic here -48.2% 12% -41.8%
15% -53.2% 9% -47.4%
20% -57.8% 7% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.74 · official $42.27 (match) · 2634 history records