Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe74b…8c42 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-4%) realized −$20 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$18
other 17% −$3
politics 10% −$1
sports 6% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 9 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 9 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 0% -11.7%
all 42 -7.1% -16.0% 52% 0% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -12.8%
10% -24.0% 0% -21.2%
15% -31.4% 0% -28.8%
20% -38.1% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage466d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $32 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $30 −$7 -23%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $10 $0 +2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 10 $10 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $5 $0 +8%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 05 $14 $0 +3%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the n Apr 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Mar 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? Mar 13 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $24 41h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $24 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 45h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $31 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $29 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $23 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $30 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 8d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $1 382d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? SELL Yes $0 396d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? SELL Yes $0 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.52 · official $30.52 (match) · 131 history records