Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E7 0xe74c…7602 politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$2
other 29% −$1
economics 12% $0
finance 6% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage109d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $110 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $111 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $111 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $113 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 28 $113 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $113 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $113 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $114 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $110 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $110 12h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $110 23d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $110 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $111 29d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 36d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 37d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $111 38d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $111 39d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $111 41d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $111 42d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $111 43d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $111 43d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $111 45d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $111 46d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $112 68d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $1 69d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $99 69d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $13 69d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $112 74d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $112 74d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 75d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 76d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $113 80d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 80d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $113 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $113 90d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 101d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records