Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E7 0xe74e…4853 crypto 433 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1944 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$601 (+1%) realized +$583 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%210W / 675L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day1943.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1944 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 885 -52.7% -57.2% 24% 20% -20.0%
≤30d 885 -52.7% -57.2% 24% 20% -20.0%
≤90d 885 -52.7% -57.2% 24% 20% -20.0%
all 885 -52.7% -57.2% 24% 20% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1943.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.2% 20% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -61.3% 16% -27.6%
15% -65.1% 12% -34.6%
20% -68.5% 9% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$30 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$583
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses210 / 675
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)885 / 433
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$139
Trades / day1943.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 885 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 6¢ 56¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+825%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $222 −$222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $130 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $43 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $117 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $14 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $17 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.12 · official $19.35 · 3500 history records