Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E7 0xe755…644e politics 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,175 (-2%) realized −$3,175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%36W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,397per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$35
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$111
other 37% +$44
sports 13% −$3,114
world 3% −$4
crypto 1% −$22
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 +12.2% +1.5% 18% 12% -9.2%
≤90d 81 -6.2% -15.1% 9% 5% -12.0%
all 143 +3.5% -6.3% 25% 11% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 11% -11.0%
10% -15.3% 11% -19.5%
15% -23.5% 8% -27.3%
20% -31.0% 8% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,673) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$38 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$3,175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses36 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage151d
Avg bet$1,397
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $415 $415 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $378 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $3,107 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,098 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,737 −$6 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $3,092 −$5 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,465 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $4,680 −$6 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,495 −$3 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $79 +$24 +31%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,683 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $54 +$72 +134%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,573 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,607 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $481 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $631 +$1 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 01 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,201 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,673 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,610 −$3 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $55 +$68 +124%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $55 +$66 +119%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $4,037 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,940 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,716 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $4,141 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $6,935 −$7 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,536 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1,662 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $3,207 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $608 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $608 4h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $603 45h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $604 46h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $378 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $378 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,331 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,332 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,096 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,098 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,374 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,376 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,253 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,255 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,333 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,335 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,013 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,014 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,002 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,004 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $415 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,685 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,687 12d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,346 12d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,348 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,536 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,539 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,086 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,289 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.62 · official $414.62 (match) · 474 history records