Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:09:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe758…6308 other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$21
politics 34% −$16
sports 7% −$30
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -3.8% -12.9% 9% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 4% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)141 / 144
History coverage136d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $258 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $216 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $267 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $284 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $264 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $409 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 01 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $238 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $297 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $247 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $285 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $492 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $209 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $483 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $292 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $769 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $294 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $298 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $276 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $289 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 17 $283 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $288 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $256 21d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $257 32d
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $227 39d
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $227 41d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $258 48d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $258 48d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $226 48d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $226 48d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $274 48d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $274 49d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $219 49d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $219 50d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 50d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 51d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $216 51d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $216 51d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 51d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 52d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $267 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.85 · official $109.85 (match) · 427 history records