Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe75b…3623 crypto 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61 (-3%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%44W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$84
14 days−$84
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$5
sports 29% −$115
other 13% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 37% -15.6%
≤30d 81 -19.2% -26.9% 43% 35% -24.7%
≤90d 96 -14.4% -22.5% 46% 39% -20.6%
all 96 -14.4% -22.5% 46% 39% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 39% -20.6%
10% -29.9% 34% -28.2%
15% -36.7% 25% -35.1%
20% -42.9% 21% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses44 / 52
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage44d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$29 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$28 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$77 +487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $33 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $55 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $28 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 6h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $28 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records