Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe75b…b4f5 sports 280 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$215 (-1%) realized −$265 · open +$50
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%167W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$23
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$57
other 13% −$74
crypto 7% −$101
tech 0% +$8
world 0% +$19
finance 0% +$4
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.9% -11.2% 57% 57% -12.3%
≤30d 15 -12.6% -20.9% 53% 40% -18.6%
≤90d 123 -4.3% -13.4% 59% 54% -11.7%
all 277 -3.5% -12.7% 60% 54% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 54% -10.9%
10% -21.1% 38% -19.4%
15% -28.7% 26% -27.2%
20% -35.7% 16% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$34 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$265
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses167 / 110
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions3
Markets (closed)277 / 280
History coverage146d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $50 $86 +$36 (+72%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Petra Marcinko 75¢ 100¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+33%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $41 +$33 +82%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $60 +$40 +67%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$20 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$37 +73%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $65 −$4 -6%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. NC Dinos Jun 13 $39 +$39 +100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 31 $45 −$45 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 26 $50 +$4 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 26 $285 +$15 +5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 18 $30 +$14 +48%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians May 10 $44 −$43 -98%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $50 +$7 +14%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $80 −$79 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $501 +$20 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea May 10 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $101 +$36 +36%
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs August Holmgren May 09 $25 +$8 +32%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 27 $81 −$30 -37%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 27 $91 −$91 -100%
Barcelona Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Wuning 2: Omar Jasika vs Maximus Jones Apr 15 $63 +$21 +33%
Avalanche vs. Flames Apr 15 $40 +$60 +150%
Busan: Ui-Sung Park vs Beibit Zhukayev Apr 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $60 −$9 -15%
BMW Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marko Topo Apr 14 $85 +$15 +18%
BMW Open: Marin Cilic vs Daniel Altmaier Apr 14 $84 +$15 +18%
Busan: James Kent Trotter vs Jake Delaney Apr 14 $1 $0 +42%
Tallahassee: Dmitry Popko vs Cannon Kingsley Apr 14 $78 +$22 +28%
Santa Cruz: Eric Vanshelboim vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Apr 13 $45 −$2 -4%
Tallahassee: Michael Mmoh vs Federico Agustin Gomez Apr 13 $87 +$13 +14%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $100 −$6 -6%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Multan Sultans Apr 13 $60 +$40 +66%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Stan Wawrinka Apr 13 $83 +$17 +20%
Oeiras 3: Valentin Royer vs Marco Cecchinato Apr 13 $70 +$30 +43%
Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Close Apr 13 $55 −$2 -3%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Apr 13 $72 +$22 +31%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 12 $40 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 12 $20 +$30 +150%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Ch Apr 12 $50 +$50 +100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 12 $25 −$21 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 31m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag SELL Anastasia Zakharova 100¢ $74 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert BUY Petra Marcinko 75¢ $40 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Anastasia Zakharova 54¢ $41 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 4h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 63¢ $51 18h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 24h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 61¢ $40 24h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 48¢ $48 7d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw SELL Daniel Galan 62¢ $61 7d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Daniel Galan 65¢ $65 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 7d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY RED Canids 45¢ $45 20d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 50¢ $39 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 77¢ $50 24d
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers BUY Houston Astros 92¢ $50 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin BUY Casper Ruud 95¢ $285 26d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 86¢ $30 27d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova BUY Alexandra Eala 60¢ $51 33d
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $44 41d
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 92¢ $57 41d
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 41d
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes $1 41d
Thunder vs. Lakers SELL Thunder 100¢ $520 41d
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $80 41d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 67¢ $30 41d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 96¢ $501 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.71 · official $189.71 (match) · 739 history records