Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E7 0xe75c…bb4e sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$850 (+36%) realized +$1,232 · open −$382
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +122% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +101% what you keep after slip
Net edge+101%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$3
14 days+$746
30 days+$1,355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$493
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+101.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +66.0% +50.2% 33% 33% -8.5%
≤30d 12 +141.0% +118.1% 42% 42% +80.4%
≤90d 12 +141.0% +118.1% 42% 42% +80.4%
all 13 +122.5% +101.3% 38% 38% +32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +101.3% 38% +32.0%
10% +82.0% 31% +19.4%
15% +64.5% 31% +7.8%
20% +48.3% 31% -2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +99% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +122% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +216% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$105 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$1,232
Unrealized−$382
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage135d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 12¢ $500 $118 −$382 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $190 +$20 +11%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$56 +786%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $0 $0 +1116%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $271 +$1,005 +371%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $55 −$54 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $201 −$199 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $558 +$609 +109%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $507 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 70¢ $210 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $190 3h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $54 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $1,277 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 1¢ $9 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $46 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $202 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 72¢ $101 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $101 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $70 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $1,167 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $558 14d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 33¢ $500 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.28 · official $123.01 · 22 history records