Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe762…064b world 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$587 (-2%) realized −$610 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%120W / 124L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day102.8pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$7,010now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$246
7 days−$451
14 days−$150
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$731
sports 17% −$257
finance 8% +$66
other 6% +$55
politics 3% +$25
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +33.0% +20.3% 37% 35% -18.1%
≤30d 233 +7.5% -2.7% 48% 39% -9.2%
≤90d 244 +17.6% +6.4% 49% 40% -6.5%
all 244 +17.6% +6.4% 49% 40% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 40% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -3.7% 30% -15.4%
15% -13.0% 26% -23.6%
20% -21.6% 22% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$7,010
Realized−$610
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses120 / 124
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions94
Markets (closed)244 / 313
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day102.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 94 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $2,005 $2,061 +$56 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 77¢ 81¢ $986 $1,039 +$52 (+5%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $499 $590 +$92 (+18%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 63¢ $377 $435 +$59 (+16%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $298 $311 +$12 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 69¢ $261 $272 +$12 (+5%)
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $188 $197 +$9 (+5%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $166 $171 +$5 (+3%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 83¢ $149 $161 +$12 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $156 $160 +$4 (+3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $142 $148 +$6 (+4%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 49¢ 42¢ $122 $102 −$19 (-16%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $117 $100 −$17 (-15%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 68¢ 79¢ $73 $85 +$12 (+17%)
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $87 $76 −$10 (-12%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $61 $57 −$5 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $55 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 36¢ 96¢ $18 $49 +$30 (+168%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $55 $48 −$6 (-12%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $64 $48 −$17 (-26%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-4%)
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $86 $44 −$42 (-49%)
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? Yes 21¢ 17¢ $52 $43 −$9 (-17%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 58¢ 85¢ $27 $40 +$12 (+45%)
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 21 $1 +$7 +652%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $28 −$25 -87%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 21 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31? Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? Jun 21 $24 −$39 -158%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31? Jun 21 $0 $0 +738%
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 −$5 -139%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 21 $3 +$6 +225%
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Will FK Krasnodar win on 2026-05-11? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $20 +$6 +33%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8 −$7 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $42 +$34 +82%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $23 −$23 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $21 +$14 +70%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $23 +$12 +55%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $103 +$14 +14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $45 +$28 +62%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 19 $16 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $7 +$11 +165%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 19 $107 +$10 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $124 −$26 -21%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $23 $0 -1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $109 +$21 +19%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $157 −$149 -95%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$29 +87%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 17 $76 −$12 -16%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -22%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $23 +$12 +52%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $22 +$14 +62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$12 -50%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $161 −$19 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $460 +$145 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 −$2 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $14 1h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $14 1h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $0 1h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $53 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $14 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $7 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $8 5h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 6h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 35¢ $12 7h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 7h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 8h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 9h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 9h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 9h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $10 12h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $0 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $0 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $2 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $12 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $26 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $3 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $8 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $9 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,009.55 · official $7,008.10 (match) · 3500 history records