Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe763…8e0f crypto 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%114W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$25
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -17.1% -25.0% 41% 41% -16.1%
≤30d 258 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 44% -10.3%
≤90d 258 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 44% -10.3%
all 258 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 44% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 44% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 44% -18.9%
15% -32.2% 44% -26.7%
20% -38.9% 44% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses114 / 144
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 49¢ 80¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $4.03 (match) · 400 history records