Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E7 0xe764…60b5 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$574 (-11%) realized −$556 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%44W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$578
7 days+$569
14 days+$569
30 days+$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$588
politics 38% −$1,040
crypto 22% −$144
other 2% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +6.7% -3.5% 54% 54% +16.4%
≤30d 14 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 50% +7.0%
≤90d 14 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 50% +7.0%
all 88 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 48% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 48% -20.4%
10% -25.1% 44% -28.0%
15% -32.4% 42% -35.0%
20% -39.0% 39% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$47 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$556
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses44 / 44
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage146d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $68 $50 −$18 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 −$2 -6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $34 +$8 +23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $116 +$119 +103%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $112 −$110 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $167 +$146 +87%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $173 +$176 +102%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $67 +$84 +124%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $207 +$158 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$99 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $598 +$463 +77%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $236 −$233 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $182 −$175 -96%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 30 $1,971 −$1,040 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 29 $34 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 29 $25 +$25 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 29 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 29 $28 +$31 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 29 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 29 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 29 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 29 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 28 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 28 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 28 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 28 $13 +$11 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 28 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 28 $27 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 28 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 28 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 28 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 28 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 28 $90 +$76 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $40 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $34 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $235 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $57 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $59 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $56 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $56 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $313 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $112 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $56 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $348 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $122 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $151 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $67 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $365 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $207 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,060 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $598 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $236 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $121 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 3d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $42 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $55 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.15 · official $50.15 (match) · 189 history records