Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E7 0xe765…1b4a other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$203 (-20%) realized −$77 · open −$126

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip

Net edge+52%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$169per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+51.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+237.3%	+205.2%	100%	100%	+205.2%
≤30d	1	+237.3%	+205.2%	100%	100%	+205.2%
≤90d	1	+237.3%	+205.2%	100%	100%	+205.2%
all	3	+67.6%	+51.7%	33%	33%	-8.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+51.7%	33%	-8.4%
10%	+37.1%	33%	-17.2%
15%	+23.9%	33%	-25.2%
20%	+11.7%	33%	-32.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +237% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +68% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$121 vs −$57 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage

Net worth$228

Realized−$77

Unrealized−$126

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)3 / 6

History coverage107d

Avg bet$169

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	44¢	25¢	$206	$116	−$90 (-44%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$98	$97	−$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	32¢	10¢	$50	$15	−$35 (-70%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$51	+$121	+237%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	Mar 11	$366	−$88	-24%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Mar 08	$242	−$25	-10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	32¢	$51	3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$172	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$49	2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$51	2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY Yes	44¢	$206	86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	SELL Yes	64¢	$278	102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	BUY Yes	89¢	$217	105d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL No	52¢	$217	105d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY No	58¢	$242	105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	BUY Yes	79¢	$149	106d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.11 · official $228.11 (match) · 11 history records