Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E7 0xe76b…ad7f crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$22 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day58.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.7% -14.7% 46% 12% -10.7%
≤30d 26 -5.7% -14.7% 46% 12% -10.7%
≤90d 26 -5.7% -14.7% 46% 12% -10.7%
all 26 -5.7% -14.7% 46% 12% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 12% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 4% -19.3%
15% -30.3% 0% -27.1%
20% -37.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions12
Markets (closed)26 / 38
History coverage3d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day58.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Yes 81¢ 95¢ $55 $65 +$9 (+17%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 22? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $58 $64 +$5 (+9%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 22? No 91¢ 99¢ $36 $40 +$3 (+9%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 24? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $43 $40 −$3 (-8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? No 90¢ 98¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $25 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? No 90¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 23? No 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-96%)
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 23? No 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 23? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 23? No 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 23? Jun 22 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 23? Jun 22 $60 −$3 -4%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 24? Jun 22 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $59 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 22 $59 −$2 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? Jun 22 $55 −$3 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 22 $59 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 22 $59 −$2 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? Jun 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? Jun 22 $24 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $57 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $21 +$4 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $26 −$8 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $6 −$2 -44%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 23? Jun 21 $16 −$2 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $8 −$7 -99%
XRP Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$2 -39%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 21? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 21? Jun 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 23? SELL No 95¢ $55 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 23? SELL Yes 77¢ $57 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 24? SELL No 90¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 92¢ $61 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? SELL No 78¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? SELL No 89¢ $59 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? SELL No 83¢ $52 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? SELL No 80¢ $58 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? SELL Yes 77¢ $49 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? SELL Yes 73¢ $17 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? SELL Yes 74¢ $7 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 58¢ $18 18h
Solana Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 89¢ $5 21h
Solana Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 90¢ $8 21h
Solana Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 92¢ $8 21h
Solana Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 89¢ $9 21h
Solana Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 95¢ $5 22h
Solana Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 94¢ $6 22h
Solana Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 93¢ $7 22h
Solana Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 95¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 83¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 83¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 83¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 79¢ $6 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.41 · official $293.41 (match) · 202 history records