Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe76c…1c3c other 846 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$568 (+1%) realized +$581 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%445W / 380L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$1,475
14 days−$1,346
30 days−$692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$362
sports 23% −$64
crypto 1% +$44
world 1% +$23
finance 0% +$35
weather 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -46.4% -51.5% 30% 30% -51.6%
≤30d 101 -22.5% -29.9% 44% 44% -24.3%
≤90d 403 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 54% -11.8%
all 825 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 53% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 53% -8.6%
10% -19.3% 51% -17.3%
15% -27.1% 46% -25.3%
20% -34.2% 39% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$42 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized+$581
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses445 / 380
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions17
Markets (closed)825 / 846
History coverage167d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 78¢ $70 $81 +$11 (+16%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+32%)
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $51 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+64%)
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 64¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-23%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 76¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 69¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-82%)
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $57 +$34 +60%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $30 +$25 +81%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 20 $101 +$21 +21%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$26 +51%
Pedri: 1+ assists Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Cucurella: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $31 +$55 +181%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $61 +$41 +67%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 20 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 +$48 +73%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 +$24 +79%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $41 +$39 +97%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $40 +$7 +17%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $15 +$33 +216%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $42 +$23 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$30 +60%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Jeremy Doku: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 1 Aston Villa FC? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Incheon United FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31? Jun 15 $25 −$20 -78%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 1 Aston Villa FC? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 0 Aston Villa FC? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 0 Aston Villa FC? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5) Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Elche CF vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 32¢ $46 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Wil BUY 43¢ $66 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 56¢ $61 14h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $30 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $70 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $57 26h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $40 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 26h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 82¢ $101 26h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $31 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $61 39h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 39h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $61 39h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 39h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $15 5d
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $42 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 5d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $41 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 5d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $20 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $30 5d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 5d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $20 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $66 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.79 · official $632.79 · 1825 history records