Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe76d…bf3e crypto 409 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1248 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,275 (-6%) realized −$1,257 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%367W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1248.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1248 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 410 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 410 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 410 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.8%
all 410 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1248.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$1,257
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses367 / 43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)410 / 409
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1248.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 79¢ 100¢ $32 $40 +$8 (+26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 47¢ 50¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $93 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $118 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $119 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $32 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $18 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $19 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.00 · official $80.00 (match) · 3500 history records