Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe76f…5985 world 17 markets active 7d ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$2
crypto 3% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.0%
all 17 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.05 per $1 lost it wins $5.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage458d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $122 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $9 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Mar 18 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $39 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $38 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $44 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $17 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $3 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $18 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $0 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $39 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $37 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $27 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $33 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $41 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $41 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $41 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $41 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records