Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

E7 0xe778…9dbb other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$9 (+7%) realized +$10 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown30%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-43.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-37.3%	-43.3%	25%	25%	-2.5%
≤30d	4	-37.3%	-43.3%	25%	25%	-2.5%
≤90d	4	-37.3%	-43.3%	25%	25%	-2.5%
all	4	-37.3%	-43.3%	25%	25%	-2.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-43.3%	25%	-2.5%
10%	-48.7%	25%	-11.8%
15%	-53.7%	25%	-20.3%
20%	-58.2%	25%	-28.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -37% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$1 · ×12.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.04 per $1 lost it wins $4.04

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$31

Realized+$10

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage5d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown30%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	42¢	40¢	$30	$28	−$2 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$2	$3	+$1 (+54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$80	$0	-0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$21	+$11	+51%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	94¢	$42	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$31	1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	90¢	$38	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$80	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$32	4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$11	9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$2	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.30 · official $31.30 (match) · 11 history records