Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E7 0xe77a…f64d crypto 23 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-8%) realized −$6 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$20
other 20% −$16
tech 20% −$2
weather 6% +$14
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.2% -0.3% 71% 50% -13.3%
≤30d 14 +10.2% -0.3% 71% 50% -13.3%
≤90d 14 +10.2% -0.3% 71% 50% -13.3%
all 14 +10.2% -0.3% 71% 50% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 50% -13.3%
10% -9.9% 50% -21.6%
15% -18.6% 50% -29.2%
20% -26.5% 36% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)14 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 85¢ 76¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will "absi" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 89¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 85¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 44¢ 28¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 22¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$9 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $16 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 18 $10 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$7 +137%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes $11 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $10 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 43h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 22¢ $10 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 64¢ $7 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 65¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will "absi" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 4d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 85¢ $20 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.13 · official $84.13 (match) · 39 history records