Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E7 0xe77d…7383 crypto 965 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,042 (-8%) realized −$3,042 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%539W / 767L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$1,162
other 4% −$202
finance 3% −$205
weather 2% −$73
politics 2% −$127
culture 1% −$34
world 1% −$11
sports 0% −$5
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 420 -73.1% -75.6% 14% 9% -68.5%
≤30d 720 -43.5% -48.9% 30% 22% -39.9%
≤90d 1306 -25.7% -32.7% 41% 32% -24.2%
all 1306 -25.7% -32.7% 41% 32% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 32% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -39.2% 29% -31.4%
15% -45.1% 27% -38.0%
20% -50.4% 23% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,042
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses539 / 767
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1306 / 965
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1306 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$14 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Jackson State Tigers vs. Florida A&M Rattlers Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$11 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$8 -736%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$7 -680%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$28 -110%
Will PSV win on 2025-12-09? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records