Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:02:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E7 0xe783…5242 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+32%) realized +$33 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$178
crypto 6% −$12
world 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.0% -22.2% 33% 33% +92.9%
≤30d 3 -14.0% -22.2% 33% 33% +92.9%
≤90d 3 -14.0% -22.2% 33% 33% +92.9%
all 3 -14.0% -22.2% 33% 33% +92.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 33% +92.9%
10% -29.6% 33% +74.5%
15% -36.4% 33% +57.6%
20% -42.6% 33% +42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +113% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +113% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$7 · ×15.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.51 per $1 lost it wins $7.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $185 $250 +$65 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $71 +$113 +158%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $186 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $71 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.04 · official $253.04 (match) · 6 history records