Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E7 0xe785…d473 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-4%) realized −$12 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$767now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$57
crypto 11% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -24.6% -31.8% 0% 0% -31.8%
≤30d 1 -24.6% -31.8% 0% 0% -31.8%
≤90d 2 -13.8% -22.0% 0% 0% -21.6%
all 2 -13.8% -22.0% 0% 0% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 0% -21.6%
10% -29.5% 0% -29.1%
15% -36.3% 0% -36.0%
20% -42.6% 0% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$14 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$767
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage144d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $100 $173 +$73 (+73%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $102 $71 −$31 (-31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $97 $63 −$34 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $103 −$25 -25%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Apr 20 $112 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $78 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $100 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 24d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $105 26d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 26d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 26d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 26d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 26d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 26d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 26d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $109 67d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $112 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $767.37 · official $767.37 (match) · 38 history records