Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe785…f764 world 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$6
other 23% +$2
politics 11% $0
economics 9% $0
sports 8% −$20
crypto 2% +$11
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 10% -7.5%
≤30d 25 -4.1% -13.2% 24% 4% -8.9%
≤90d 58 -1.8% -11.1% 33% 3% -9.3%
all 71 -2.1% -11.4% 39% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 7% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage534d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $128 +$8 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $62 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $102 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $119 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 -10%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $13 −$2 -17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $161 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2 $0 +11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $51 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $42 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $127 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 10 $98 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $46 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 01 $41 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $15 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $45 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $45 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $34 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.74 · official $1.00 (match) · 293 history records