Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E7 0xe786…9d92 sports 331 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$466 (+1%) realized +$700 · open −$234
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate84%275W / 51L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day47.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days+$151
14 days+$177
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$243
finance 23% +$401
tech 11% +$180
economics 9% +$301
world 5% −$4
sports 5% −$22
weather 3% +$3
crypto 1% +$198
politics 1% −$165
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 7% -8.8%
≤30d 119 -1.7% -11.0% 79% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 326 +1.7% -8.0% 84% 10% -7.9%
all 326 +1.7% -8.0% 84% 10% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 10% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 6% -16.7%
15% -24.8% 4% -24.8%
20% -32.2% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.9 per $1 lost it wins $4.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$720
Realized+$700
Unrealized−$234
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses275 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)326 / 331
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$236
Trades / day47.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $250 $417 +$167 (+67%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 85¢ $87 $85 −$2 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $250 $83 −$167 (-67%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 16¢ $85 $25 −$61 (-71%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-18%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,615 +$15 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $977 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 17 $5,815 +$2 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $441 +$4 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $122 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 17 $5,083 +$1 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $191 +$11 +6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $443 +$4 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $32 +$1 +2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $13 −$7 -49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 16 $15 −$9 -59%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 16 $31 −$27 -87%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $78 −$58 -74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $398 +$7 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $87 +$13 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $460 +$6 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $79 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $130 $0 +0%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 +$2 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,336 +$23 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $378 +$1 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$6 -10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $42 +$8 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $48 +$1 +2%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $76 +$230 +304%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $416 +$23 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $196 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $206 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $29 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $73 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $37 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $117 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.50 · official $720.50 (match) · 3500 history records