Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E7 0xe78f…9e37 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$107 (-56%) realized −$106 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip

Net edge-59%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-57.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-53.0%	-57.5%	33%	33%	-86.0%
≤30d	6	-53.0%	-57.5%	33%	33%	-86.0%
≤90d	6	-53.0%	-57.5%	33%	33%	-86.0%
all	6	-53.0%	-57.5%	33%	33%	-86.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-57.5%	33%	-86.0%
10%	-61.6%	17%	-87.3%
15%	-65.3%	17%	-88.6%
20%	-68.7%	17%	-89.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -84% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -53% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$28 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.05 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$63

Realized−$106

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	87¢	86¢	$59	$58	−$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$1	−$1	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$8	+$2	+20%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$2	−$2	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$6	+$4	+62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$108	−$107	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	50¢	$1	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$50	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$9	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	83¢	$8	27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	15¢	$2	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$6	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	62¢	$66	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	62¢	$30	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	63¢	$12	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.94 · official $62.94 (match) · 14 history records