Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E7 0xe790…63d2 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7,336 (-16%) realized −$8,060 · open +$724
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,701per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$7,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$370
7 days+$1,357
14 days+$1,357
30 days−$12,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$9,930
other 26% +$1,469
crypto 3% +$511
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +27.1% +15.0% 89% 67% +18.1%
≤30d 10 +16.0% +5.0% 80% 60% -63.1%
≤90d 17 +9.0% -1.3% 76% 47% -29.7%
all 17 +9.0% -1.3% 76% 47% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 47% -29.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 35% -36.4%
15% -19.4% 18% -42.5%
20% -27.3% 6% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,788) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$517 vs −$3,848 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$7,524
Realized−$8,060
Unrealized+$724
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)17 / 27
History coverage72d
Avg bet$1,701
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $2,011 +$511 (+34%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,220 +$220 (+22%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $1,000 $1,006 +$6 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $800 $806 +$6 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $700 $706 +$6 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $700 $622 −$78 (-11%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 65¢ $500 $584 +$84 (+17%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $167 −$33 (-17%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$26 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $604 +$142 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $703 +$173 +25%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $712 +$1,014 +142%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $404 +$184 +46%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $618 −$221 -36%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $16,191 −$13,576 -84%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t May 18 $1,788 +$506 +28%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 18 $10,572 +$4,593 +43%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 27 $1,573 +$8 +0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 20 $1,864 −$1,493 -80%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? Apr 15 $1,922 −$102 -5%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round Apr 15 $542 +$31 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $601 8h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $203 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $397 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $618 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 15d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $618 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,524.24 · official $7,524.24 (match) · 112 history records