Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

E7 0xe791…9957 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR69%break-even

Win rate73%19W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day3.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$106

7 days−$41

14 days+$12

30 days+$12

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +69%

net ROI/market (all)-4.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+0.5%	-9.0%	71%	67%	-14.9%
≤30d	26	+5.8%	-4.3%	73%	69%	-8.3%
≤90d	26	+5.8%	-4.3%	73%	69%	-8.3%
all	26	+5.8%	-4.3%	73%	69%	-8.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.3%	69%	-8.3%
10%	-13.4%	50%	-17.1%
15%	-21.8%	38%	-25.1%
20%	-29.5%	23%	-32.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

5% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +26% → late -14% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$37 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.05 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$73

Realized+$17

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses19 / 7

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)26 / 28

History coverage10d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day3.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	T1	87¢	94¢	$36	$39	+$3 (+9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$34	$34	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Jun 28	$34	+$11	+32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 28	$91	−$91	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$30	−$26	-84%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$30	+$7	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$35	+$23	+65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$30	+$3	+11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$30	+$6	+19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$18	−$18	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$30	+$28	+93%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 25	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$30	+$10	+32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$30	+$6	+20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$30	+$12	+40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 24	$30	+$4	+12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$30	+$15	+50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$30	+$5	+17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$31	+$38	+124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$30	+$3	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$30	+$14	+48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$30	+$14	+46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$30	+$16	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$30	+$21	+70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$45	+$32	+71%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	BUY T1	87¢	$36	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$34	12h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY Canada	75¢	$34	12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	8¢	$5	26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	49¢	$30	42h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$35	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$30	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	74¢	$50	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$30	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$41	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	84¢	$30	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	65¢	$30	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	61¢	$18	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$30	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$30	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$30	4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$30	4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$31	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$30	5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$30	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$30	5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$31	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$30	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$30	8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$30	8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$30	8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$30	8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	99¢	$63	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.81 · official $72.81 (match) · 58 history records