Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe799…420b crypto 657 markets active 2h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$980 (-5%) realized −$980 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%285W / 372L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$105
14 days−$348
30 days−$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,126
other 1% −$67
tech 0% −$20
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -16.7% -24.6% 33% 23% -17.2%
≤30d 111 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 36% -15.7%
≤90d 329 -18.5% -26.2% 42% 38% -17.4%
all 657 -11.2% -19.7% 43% 40% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 40% -15.4%
10% -27.4% 35% -23.5%
15% -34.4% 31% -30.9%
20% -40.8% 28% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$980
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses285 / 372
Open positions0
Markets (closed)657 / 657
History coverage310d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 657 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $123 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$18 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$24 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$19 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$20 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$22 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $92 −$21 -23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $123 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $67 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$28 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $167 −$19 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $98 −$14 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3108 history records