Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E7
0xe799…c2fb
weather · 424 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$72 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$63 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$328
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses204 / 215
Open positions5
Markets (closed)419 / 424
History coverage584d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 5 History 419 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $330 $320 −$10 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Yes 25¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 5? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 19? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 19? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 07 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 07 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$2 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 +$3 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 5? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Jun 01 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2? May 31 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 31? May 31 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 1? May 30 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 29? May 29 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 29 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30? May 28 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 30? May 28 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 28? May 27 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28? May 27 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 27? May 26 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28? May 26 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27? May 26 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? May 26 $2 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 25 $2 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 26? May 25 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 27? May 25 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 24? May 25 $3 +$3 +110%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 24 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26? May 24 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 24? May 24 $2 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 25? May 24 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 26? May 24 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 24? May 23 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 25? May 23 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23? May 22 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 55% −$36
other 34% −$21
crypto 7% −$10
sports 2% −$4
politics 1% +$9
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.9% -26.6% 36% 27% -23.0%
≤30d 70 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 43% -15.0%
≤90d 326 -19.1% -26.8% 43% 40% -28.6%
all 419 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 46% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 46% -17.5%
10% -25.2% 38% -25.4%
15% -32.5% 27% -32.6%
20% -39.1% 18% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.24 · official $328.19 (match) · 908 history records